The forgotten lessons- History of pandemics

Influenza Pandemic
There is a famous saying that “we learn from history”. I have picked my pens to demystify this saying in light of the history of pandemics. We seem to have learnt little (if any) and forgotten much (if not all) from the experience of pandemics. December 2019 is not any different from the March of 1918. The latter marked the first wave of Spanish influenza (avian flu) moving across the United States that lasted throughout the summer of 1918.

It started as a joke and little attention was given to this infectious disease. It started along the axis from Massachusetts to Virginia; leaped the Appalachians; positioned along the inland waterways; it jumped clear across the plains and the Rockies to Los Angeles; San Francisco; and Seattle. Then, with secure bases on both coasts, took its time to seep into every niche and corner of America by the fall of 1918. By the spring of 1919, it had spread to almost every corner of the globe subsequently claiming over 50 million lives!

History has it that the global magnitude and spread of the influenza pandemic was exacerbated by World War I, which itself is estimated to have killed roughly 10 million civilians and 9 million troops. Not only did the mass movement of troops from around the world lead to the spread of the disease, tens of thousands of Allied and Central Power troops died as a result of the influenza pandemic rather than combat itself.

The 1918 influenza was unique. Its mortality rates (those who died of influenza) were the highest for the segment of the population aged 18 to 40, and more so for males than females of this age group. These deaths were not caused by the influenza virus itself, but by the body’s immunological reaction to the virus. And surprisingly individuals with the strongest immune systems were more likely to die than individuals with weaker immune systems. Indeed, out of 272,500 male influenza deaths in 1918, nearly 49 percent were aged20 to 39, whereas only 18 percent were under age 5 and 13 percent were over age 50. The fact that males aged 18 to 40 were the hardest hit by the influenza had serious economic consequences for the families that had lost their primary breadwinner. Also, the significant loss of prime working-age employees had economic consequences for businesses globally.

It is reasonable to say that the influenza of 1918 has ‘almost’ been forgotten as a tragic event in world history, despite its economic severity. This is not good, as learning from past pandemics may be the only way to reasonably prepare for any future pandemics. My little intelligence informs me that the 1918 influenza pandemic has not received a notable place in world history for three reasons.

First, the pandemic occurred at the same time as World War I. Thus, the pandemic and World War I were mistaken to be one event rather than two separate events. Second, .Influenza swept into communities, killed members of the population, and was gone in contrast to diseases of the day like polio, smallpox and syphilis which were a permanent part of society. Finally, unlike polio and smallpox, no famous people of the era died from the influenza; thus there was no public perception that even the politically powerful, rich and famous were not immune from the virus. It was unofficially perceived to be the “disease of the poor”.

Mistaken by the above myths, the world did not learn from the influenza experience. We did not plan for future pandemics. We are paying a huge price again.

Covid19 Pandemic
The 31st of December 2020 got us on the flip side of the coin, forgetful of the pandemics’ history. A pneumonia of unknown cause was detected in Wuhan China and reported to Word Health Organization (WHO) country officer. We, again, thought it was a joke and literally thought it was mere pneumonia. Even when WHO announced the corona virus disease 19 (Covid19) as a pandemic on 11th March 2020, we still thought it was a joke. Indeed, jokingly quite many on the African continent branded it a “Whites’ disease” and we were not much bothered, neither did we plan for it.

The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain, which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In a strongly connected and integrated world, the impacts of Covid19 beyond mortality (those who die) and morbidity (those who are incapacitated and unable to work for a period) has become apparent since the outbreak. Economists are predicting a global economic recession, much bigger than the one experienced after the 2008 financial crisis.

Economies, worldwide are feeling the heat of a recession. GDP growth rates are on the decline, with China projected to record -2% in the second quarter of 2020—her lowest rate in the past two decades or so; the stock markets are already in intensive care unit (ICU)—with FTSE MIB (Italy), FTSE (UK), and S & P500 (USA) nearing their deaths; Airlines are in “comma”—with over 4.6 million seats on scheduled seats between EU and non-EU countries banned in the past 30 days; large decline in the restaurant industry—with completely no restaurant reservations and walk-ins on open table; tourism is in amnesia; literally all sectors are affected. The dystopian reality of deserted airports, empty trucks and thinly occupied restaurants is already badly hurting economic activity in developing economies.

Uncertainty, panic and lock-down policies are driving a large drop in demand. The drop in demand will thus force many investment firms to close, especially small and young firms which large depend on cash flows. Covid19 is the worst crisis of our time! Unfortunately, in Uganda the spread of this contagious disease has begun to sprint. A lot of questions are already making the brain bells of serious Ugandans to ring. With the ailing heath system on which the country sits, the questions relate to “Thy blood or my Livelihood” contrary to what famous economist, Lionel Robins, coined as “Thy blood or mine” when he was attacking interpersonal comparisons.

Interpersonal comparisons permit us to judge whether prospective additional losses of life of some may be viewed as outweighing the economic or social harms experienced by others. This thinking overrides humane morals in this situation. For starters, Uganda had more ministers than intensive care unit (ICU) beds in hospitals as of February 2020—to justify the extreme end of Uganda’s ailing health system. Tthe country had 12 functional ICUs (80% of them in Kampala), with a total of 55 functional ICU beds and the nurse patient ratio of 1:8 (1 nurse for every 8 patients, for the worst ICU).  But the country has 80 (cabinet 39, state 41) ministers! Since the announcement of the first Covid-19 case, Uganda has fixed her dysfunctional ICUs and consequently raising the ICU beds to over 400. How long shall we make such quick responses with more projected cases?  Not so long!

Public leadership must be at a center stage! Identifying the necessary interventions that take into account of the interdependence between health and economic stability is in the nature of a “wicked problem” which demands extraordinary leadership, at such a time when trust in government is unprecendently low. With the disruptions in the supply chains, how’s Uganda prepared to contain Covid19? How will it affect Uganda’s economy? What are the economic effects of Covid19? Precisely, what’s the economics of Covid19? The Economist Patrol has been allowed, by authorities, to monitor economic situation in Uganda during the “lock-down”. The pens will be pointed to these very pages to report the findings, shortly.

Mugabe Darious teaches economics at Makerere University Business School